Reforming programme evaluation in conflict and fragile settings: African case studies

Conflict is a major threat to sustainable growth and development in Africa and worldwide. Given the many different conflict analysis models and frameworks, evaluators need to have an understanding of conflict and fragility as the basis for their work. One of the main challenges specific to evaluations in fragile and conflict-affected settings is understanding and adapting to violent conflict, while mitigating the risk that evaluations themselves become part of the conflict or cause harm to those involved (OECD, 2012). Other challenges addressed are: complexity, weak theoretical foundations, challenges to data collection, attribution, a highly political environment, multiple actors and multiple agendas. While there are many approaches to evaluation, those associated with conflict and fragile contexts are the most striking. In the evolving field of conflict and fragility where approaches to evaluation are likely to vary overtime, with the evolution of certainty and/or uncertainty about risks, impacts and solutions, it is challenging to frame and design evaluations effectively. Studies (OECD, 2012; World Bank, 2009, 2010; N. Beaudeliau, 2010; D. N. Barton, 2010; N. Lamhauge et al., 2011) highlight a combination of challenges (ambiguous definition of fragility, reconstruct of the theory of change, shifting baselines, attribution, and time lags between interventions and outcomes) that affect evaluation frameworks in fragile settings. Beyond theoretical considerations and assumptions, substantive issues remain. How should evaluation be conducted in conflict and fragile contexts in order to meet the required quality standards (gender, etc) and its intended role? Knowing that context matters, this panel will survey the options that could enhance methods and approaches in order to enable managers and actors to take informed decisions and plan strategically. It focuses on a literature review of methods and approaches from evaluations of conflict and fragile related programmes and highlights the main challenges of dealing with uncertainty and fragility. The panel also refers to the extent to which approaches in conflict and fragile settings are sensitive to gender and human rights. It finally addresses propositions that would improve evaluations in the context of conflict and fragility helping thus to improve programming with the hope of strengthening self-reliance and resilience of affected populations.